The World Daily
German deluge break records and shocks scientists

The death toll has passed 100 and hundreds more people remain missing in Belgium and Germany after strong rains caused rivers to burst and wash away buildings. Photo:AP

 

By Patryk Krych | The World Daily | JULY 16th 2021 

 

Climate scientists were reportedly shocked by the record-breaking scale of the recent floods that had hit Germany in the past week over a wide area, in yet another instance of man-made extreme weather.

On Wednesday, plenty of precipitation records had been broken over a wide area of the Rhine basin, as heavy floods had spread in a much quicker and wider manner than scientists had predicated they could.

Following the severe heatwaves that caused an increase in draughts and deaths across both the Western United States and Canada, scientists and people alike were growing highly fearful of the potential extreme weather circumstances that could be felt in Europe as well. This recent German deluge is thought to be one such effect of the man-made changing climate.

“I am surprised by how far it is above the previous record,” said Dieter Gerten, a professor of global change climatology and hydrology at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “We seem to be not just above normal but in domains we didn’t expect in terms of spatial extent and the speed it developed.”

Tens of thousands of homes had been flooded as a result, alongside power cuts. Nearly 100 deaths had been recorded thus far, though the actual numbers may be higher with over 1,000 people still reported missing. Within only 48 hours, the parts of the Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia had been flooded with at least 148 litres of rain per sq metre, in a region that typically only gets an average of 80 litres in all of July time.

A state of emergency had been declared in the city of Hagen, after the banks of the Volme had burst and the deluge was underway. Though scientists have been predicting and warning of the possibility of such effects as a cause of climate change for years, they had still be shocked by the sheer volume and speed of this particular flood.

“This week’s event is totally untypical for that region. It lasted a long time and affected a wide area,” said Gerten, who had added that he’d actually grown up in a village found in the affected areas. He stated that the region had seen occasional floods, but never of this severity. 

 

“With climate change we do expect all hydro-meteorological extremes to become more extreme. What we have seen in Germany is broadly consistent with this trend,” the director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said Carlo Buontempo.

This record-breaking deluge is only the latest in extreme weather circumstances being felt in recent times, with a climate scientist at the University of California in Los Angeles, Daniel Swain, having said that there were so many heat records being broken in the US that hardly any of them made the news anymore.

“The extremes that would have been newsworthy a couple of years ago aren’t, because they pale in comparison to the astonishing rises a few weeks ago,” said Swain. “The US is often in the spotlight, but we have also seen extraordinary heat events in northern Europe and Siberia. This is not a localised freak event, it is definitely part of a coherent global pattern.”

Fears are sprouting among some experts that the effects of climate change may be revealing themselves and rising in a “nonlinear” manner, rather than the predicted steady inclines and gradually rising temperatures.

“We need to better model nonlinear events,” said Gerten. “We scientists in recent years have been surprised by some events that occurred earlier and were more frequent and more intense than expected.” 

 

By Patryk Krych | © The World Daily 2021 

Source: The Guardian, Evening Standard